At present gain of whole of building materials industry is in normal level, be in energy-saving below the setting that decreases a platoon, the industry produces the possibility minimum of can malign dilate. We predict, below the circumstance that exports apparent suffocate suffocate 8 years, fixed assets investment regards whole as macroscopical economic stability implement action will be shown again, because the fixed assets investment of this annual is added fast will maintain in the higher level of 24% , the demand of product of corresponding building materials is added fast will maintain in 10% above. Although control the change of policy as a result of credit quarter sex, the industry may arise seasonal fluctuant, but industry whole supply demand relations will continue to improve.
Supply and demand decides boom is spent
We think, to building materials industry, the scene bearing of the industry is decided by supply. In innovation of industry profit margin adjusting control of investment of tall, fixed assets anticipates constrictively below, the market fears slow down in demand can make industry boom drops all the time. We think, the market still puts the emphasis in new increase production can go up, demand side need not excessive concern.
Above all, the driving force of core of industry boom cycle is supply demand relations. The stand or fall of supply demand relations is the critical factor that industry cycle changes, do not suffer the interference of cost factor, below the circumstance of preference of supply demand relations, the pressure that cost rises gets the rise that carries product price transferring.
Next, inside the period that can foreknow, the development existing state of affairs that our country drives GDP to grow with fixed assets investment is very ugly to change, because this cement and vitreous demand are relatively other,high speed growth of the country is in short-term inside produce a change very hard.
Finally, from the point of historical circumstance, the extent with fluctuant demand is less than the extent with fluctuant supply apparently, because visit course of study is periodic,with supply metabolic dependency is more than demand to change. When judgement industry is moved toward, to the attention of supply side degree should be more than the attention degree of pair of demand sides.
Produce can outspread possibility not quite
Building materials industry produces expansible speed to depend on the amplitude that building materials industry invests, this kind of amplitude decides by two elements again: It is the gain ability of industry reality. Above all, the boom degree of the industry affects the cash of the enterprise to shed a state directly, and the industry that undertakes as need capital sex investment maintains enterprise dimensions dilate ceaselessly, the cash of the enterprise flows a state to affect its to issue the capital new spending of one year directly again, affect thereby produce can put in; Next, the boom degree of the industry affects the apiration that enters building materials industry to gold of industry foreign capital directly, 3 year end brought about gold of much industry foreign capital to enter cement industry directly to the hot prices of cement of whole nation of 4 the beginning of the year, the cement trade that caused 4 years of second half of the year to begin thereby is serious supply exceeds demand.
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